Commodity Market Report

China coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023

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We estimate seaborne imports to increase significantly by 115 Mt, or 55%, in 2023 compared to 2022. It is the key driver behind the QHD price’s fall to below RMB1,000/t in 2023 from RMB1,274/t in 2022. Will seaborne imports continue to increase or remain at around 300 Mt per year for the next decade? We do not think so. On the contrary, China’s thermal coal market will face big changes that will have significant impacts on seaborne imports. For metallurgical coal, steel demand from the construction sector will be the biggest contributor to the overall demand drop. However, this fall could be even more rapid due to the gradual phasing out of BF-BOF steelmaking. How bad will it be for coal miners? Who will lose and who will maintain its position? For more details, please read our report.

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    China Coal Investment Horizon Outlook  2023.pdf

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