Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 27 September 2023

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Report summary

Global zinc demand growth is set to contract for a second consecutive year in 2023. With a muted recovery in Chinese demand failing to offset a sharp downturn in European demand. However, in the medium term demand will recover, driven primarily by India and other Asian nations. Meanwhile, we forecast only a slight rise in mine output this year, much less than expected at the beginning of 2023 due to several major disruptions to mines supply. This is set to change in 2024.

Medium term forecasts
Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Overview
- Medium term outlook
- China
- Europe
- USA
- India
- Pakistan
Changes to forecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- Market adjustments
- Mine projects
- Downgrades to project status include:
- Medium-term supply and investment considerations
- Limited pool of advanced stage projects may require alternative sources of new supply
- Germanium and Gallium may become critical
- Juniors attracting small amounts of finance
- Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
- Mining and mineral processing technology
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Other Asia
- Latin America
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Smelter supply changes since last quarter
- Africa
India
China
- Europe
- North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

Price forecasts and refined market balances
Concentrate market balances table
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term

Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
Requirement for new mine production
Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts
Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
Global zinc consumption by region
Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
Developing economies will drive consumption growth
Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
Changes to forecasts
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2026
Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
European zinc consumption
Asia, and India in particular will dominate zinc consumption growth
India will drive Asian consumption growth
Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
Requirement for new mine production
Mine project allowance breakdown
Breakdown of type of capital raise per year between 2018 and June 2023
Mine production capability forecast has been reduced in 2023 and 2024 but is set rise later this decade
Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
Increased smelter production capability is needed at the end of the decade
World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Requirement of future smelter production
Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
Smelter capability forecast changes since last quarter
Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated