Commodity Market Report

Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2023

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Global zinc demand growth is set to contract for a second consecutive year in 2023. With a muted recovery in Chinese demand failing to offset a sharp downturn in European demand. However, in the medium term demand will recover, driven primarily by India and other Asian nations. Meanwhile, we forecast only a slight rise in mine output this year, much less than expected at the beginning of 2023 due to several major disruptions to mines supply. This is set to change in 2024.

Table of contents

  • Medium term forecasts
  • Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
    • Medium term outlook
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Pakistan
    • Market adjustments
    • Mine projects
    • Downgrades to project status include:
    • Medium-term supply and investment considerations
    • Limited pool of advanced stage projects may require alternative sources of new supply
    • Germanium and Gallium may become critical
    • Juniors attracting small amounts of finance
    • Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
    • Mining and mineral processing technology
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • China
    • Other Asia
    • Latin America
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Smelter supply changes since last quarter
    • Africa
  • India
    • Europe
    • North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts
  • Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
  • Global zinc consumption by region
  • Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
  • Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
  • Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
  • Developing economies will drive consumption growth
  • Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
  • Changes to forecasts
  • World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2026
  • Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
  • Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
  • European zinc consumption
  • Asia, and India in particular will dominate zinc consumption growth
  • India will drive Asian consumption growth
  • Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Mine project allowance breakdown
  • Breakdown of type of capital raise per year between 2018 and June 2023
  • Mine production capability forecast has been reduced in 2023 and 2024 but is set rise later this decade
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
  • Increased smelter production capability is needed at the end of the decade
  • World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Requirement of future smelter production
  • Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
  • Smelter capability forecast changes since last quarter
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
  • Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2023

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