Commodity Market Report

Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2019

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30 September 2019

Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2019

Report summary

The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040. Macro-economic concerns are overwhelming the influence of zinc’s fundamentals and the base case zinc price is forecast to remain low in the near-term. Our scenario analyses conform to the causality of supply, demand, stocks and price. They also consider a judgement of investor sentiment and behaviour that over the last four decades has so often caused zinc to test the highs and lows of the stock cycle and resulted in a history of volatile prices and treatment charges.

Table of contents

  • Key Points
  • Demand – what's changed?
  • Supply – what's changed?
  • Base case price forecasts
  • Scenario analysis
    • Risks to forecasts
    • Near- medium-term
    • Long-term
    • Overview
    • Project allowance
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • World zinc mine production capability and mine projects
    • Overview
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Middle East
    • Latin America
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • First use
    • End use

Tables and charts

This report includes 38 images and tables including:

  • Forecast stocks and prices
  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • Concentrate market balances
  • US$ Trade Weighted Index versus zinc price with TWI averages
  • LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2035
  • Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
  • Zinc price forecasts (nominal $/t)
  • Global slab zinc consumption by region
  • The decline in the use of zinc-based die-casting alloys has reduced zinc's intensity of use in the global economy
  • Global slab zinc consumption by region
  • Global slowdown a risk
  • World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Mine adjustment breakdown
  • African zinc mine production
  • Asian zinc mine production
  • European zinc mine production
  • Latin American zinc mine production
  • Middle Eastern mine production
  • North American zinc mine production
  • Oceania zinc mine production
  • Russia and the Caspian
  • Summary of zinc mine production capability changes
  • Requirement and sources of future mine production
  • Possible project changes since previous quarter
  • World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment kt
  • African zinc smelter production capability
  • Asian zinc smelter production capability
  • European zinc smelter production capability
  • Russia and the Caspian zinc smelter production capability
  • Latin American zinc smelter production capability
  • North American zinc smelter production capability
  • Oceania zinc smelter production capability
  • Requirement and sources of future smelter production
  • Global first use consumption for zinc
  • Global zinc consumption by end use
  • Zinc metal and concentrate stock cycle (kt Zn)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Zinc_Tables_LTO_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 2.47 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 680.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 251.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Production rankings zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 158.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 8.98 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 204.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 2.67 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis zinc LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 3.31 MB

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2019

    PDF 8.85 MB

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2019

    ZIP 8.56 MB

  • Document

    Slide Pack Zinc LTO Q3 2019.pdf

    PDF 1.74 MB

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