Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 27 March 2024

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Report summary

The rise in exchange stocks and the perception of a rise in invisible stocks together with general demand weakness have weighed on the zinc price in recent months. This has been counteracted by mine closures and together with the forecast recovery in demand, should see the price strengthen in the near term. However, rising mine supply and refined production and slowing demand growth will result in the refined market moving to surplus in the second half of this decade. This will undermine some of the price recovery.

Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Medium term forecasts
Overview
- Medium term outlook
- China
- India
- Europe
- USA
Changes to forecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- Smelter supply changes since last quarter
- Africa
India
China
- Europe
- North America
- Market adjustments
- Mine projects
- Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Environmental challenges
- Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
- Mining and mineral processing technology
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Latin America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 37 images and tables including:

The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
Requirement for new mine production
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices

Price forecasts and refined market balances
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
Concentrate market balances table
Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts (Nominal)
Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts (Real $)
Global zinc consumption by region
Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
Developing economies will drive consumption growth
Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
Demand destruction is a downside risk for most first-uses
Changes to forecasts
Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2034
World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Requirement of future smelter production
Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
Indian consumption growth will be fuelled by domestic demand
India will drive Asian consumption growth
European zinc consumption
Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
Re-shoring appears to be boosting the construction on manufacturing capacity
Medium-term smelter capability forecast has been reduced but increased over the long-term
Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated
Mine production losses since mid-2023
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
Requirement for new mine production
Mine project allowance breakdown
Mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 and 2023 but is to increase in most years to 2030
Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027