How will Xiongan New Area affect metals demand in China?
The Chinese government announced plans to create Xiongan New Area, a state-level new area south of Beijing. Although a detailed plan has yet to be released, we believe the development of Xiongan will require significant investment in infrastructure and other construction over the next 10 years. We have forecast how much metals demand Xiongan’s creation will add by comparing it with the development of similar zones in China, such as Shenzhen, Shanghai’s Pudong and Tianjin’s Binhai areas. Our base case estimate is that Xiongan will add around 20 Mt of steel demand, 400 kt of aluminium demand and 250 kt of copper demand during the first 10 years of its establishment.