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Iron ore: 5 things to look for in 2024
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Report summary
While the Chinese economic recovery after lifting the Covid-19 lockdowns has disappointed, Chinese hot metal production remained resilient in 2023. The global iron ore markets will continue to witness fluctuating growth trends in 2024, as policy volatility in China remains a key driver. Bond-fuelled spending by the Chinese government, announced in October 2023, will predominantly be felt after the Chinese New Year when the money flows into the seasonal recovery in steel demand. But will the recovery be short-lived? Could China’s demand surprise on the upside in 2024? Mine replacement to sustain record iron ore production levels has become more challenging in the ESG environment in which miners now operate. Will the progress made in Guinea on the Simandou project in the last couple of years continue unabated in 2024? Elevated iron ore prices suggest that the impact of China’s CMRG on iron ore prices has been non-existent, could that change in 2024?
Table of contents
- 1. China’s economy at a crossroads: After a lacklustre recovery in 2023, should we remain pessimistic, or can we be cautiously optimistic about 2024?
- 2. Mine development has become more complicated – a particular challenge as steelmakers begin to demand higher-grade ore
- 3. Simandou: What could hinder the pace of progress in 2024?
- 4. China on the global stage: Chinese domestic iron ore production to underperform targets and the growing reach of CMRG
- 5. Decarbonisation : An acceleration in the adoption of new technologies will create new green production hubs
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