Lithium market 2021 outlook to 2050 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 December 2021

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Report summary

The inaugural lithium report contains a significant overhaul of both supply and demand as strong methodologies and datasets have been combined. Our outlook has been extended to 2050. The last few years have been remarkable for the lithium industry and 2021 was no exception. With demand growth outstripping supply growth we saw spot prices increase to record levels. With new supply being added continuously in the coming years we are forecasting a relative balance in the market in the near term and we should see prices moderate to more sustainable levels. In the medium term we are forecasting a calculated supply deficit to occur and as a result prices will increase to levels which incentivise additional supply. While growth in demand LFP cathode chemistry will continue to result in strong growth for lithium carbonate, we are forecasting stronger growth for lithium hydroxide as a result of growing demand for high nickel cathode chemistries.

Historic prices
Current price landscape
Price outlook
- Battery-grade lithium hydroxide
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate
- Technical-grade lithium hydroxide
- Technical-grade lithium carbonate
- Chemical-grade spodumene concentrate
Market balance outlook
- Lithium chemical market balance outlook
- Battery-grade lithium chemical market balance outlook
- Mineral concentrate market outlook
- Key risks to market balance
Demand outlook
- Lithium chemical demand outlook
- Mineral concentrate demand outlook
Supply outlook
- Lithium chemical supply outlook
- Mineral concentrate supply outlook
Key risks to the base case outlook
Rechargeable Li-ion batteries
- Lithium demand in automotive
- Lithium demand in automotive by region
Lithium demand in ESS
Lithium demand in portable electronics
Li-ion batteries in power applications
Lithium demand in motive applications
Industrial markets
Lithium chemical supply and conversion capacity
- Lithium chemical capacity
- Chinese production capacity
Lithium chemical supply and conversion output
- Refined lithium compound supply
- Lithium reprocessing
- Lithium chemical cost
Mineral concentrate
- Mineral concentrate capacity
- Mineral concentrate output
- Mineral concentrate cost
Outlook
Recycling from automotive batteries
Methodology
- Price
- Balance
- Demand
- Supply
- Recycling
Recycling
- Benefits of recycling Li-ion batteries
- Challenges of recycling Li-ion batteries
- Economic challenge
- Technical challenge
- Scaling and timing challenge
- Li-ion battery recycling process
- Sorting
- Pre-treatment
- Materials separation & metal recovery
- Pyrometallurgical processing
- Hydrometallurgical processing
Historic data
- Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 65 images and tables including:

Historic lithium prices (contract, US$/t, real 2021)
Lithium demand by end-use
Li-ion battery demand by end-use

Lithium demand in ESS sector by product
Lithium demand in portable sector by product
Lithium demand in power sector by product
Lithium demand in motive sector by product
Lithium demand from industrial sectors
Recycled lithium chemical supply
Battery-grade lithium hydroxide price outlook (US$/t, real 2021)
Battery-grade lithium carbonate price outlook (US$/t, real 2021)
Technical-grade lithium hydroxide price outlook (US$/t, real 2021)
Technical-grade lithium carbonate price outlook (US$/t, real 2021)
Chemical-grade spodumene concentrate price outlook (US$/t, real 2021)
Lithium chemical balance, base case
Lithium chemical balance, all case
Battery-grade lithium chemical balance, base case
Battery-grade lithium chemical balance, all case
Spodumene concentrate balance, base case
Spodumene concentrate balance, all case
BEV and PHEV penetration by selected regions
Summary cathode chemistry
Lithium demand by end-use
Lithium demand by product
Mineral concentrate demand by product
Refined supply by country
Refined supply by company
Mine supply by country
Vehicle forecast by drive train
Lithium demand in automotive sector by product
Lithium demand by region in automotive sector
Refined capacity by country
Refined capacity by integration
Refined capacity by raw material source
Refined supply by classification
Refined supply by country
Top five producers of refined lithium (2021)
Top five producers of refined lithium (2030)
Refined supply by company, kt LCE
Refined battery-grade supply by process
Lithium hydroxide cost curve, 2025
Lithium brine cost curve, 2025
Forecast mine nameplate capacity by company, kt LCE
Mine capacity by type (2021)
Mine capacity by type (2030)
Mine capacity by classification
Mine capacity vs converter demand
Mine supply by type
Mine supply by company
Spodumene concentrate cost curve, 2025
Project discount factor
Global pre-processing capacity of Li-ion batteries, 2025
Global materials recovery capacity of Li-ion batteries, 2025
Li-ion battery demand and end-of-life (EoL)
Commercial processes for Li-ion battery recycling
Process diagram of a generic pyrometallurgical recycling process
Process diagram of a generic hydrometallurgical recycling process
Recoverable materials via different technologies
Comparison of different Li-ion battery recycling methods
Historic contract prices (US$/t, nominal)
Historic demand by end-use and product (US$/t, nominal)
Historic refined lithium supply by country, product, integration and tier
Historic refined lithium capacity by country, product, integration and tier
Historic mineral concentrate supply by type, country, company, integration and tier
Historic mineral concentrate capacity by type, country and company