Perspectives - Metals and Mining - July 2025

The US trade tariffs enforced by the Trump administration have already been hitting industrial production hard. Global GDP growth has been downgraded with US GDP falling in Q1, Europe stagnating and Asia facing the challenges of supply chain relocation and trade restrictions. Meanwhile, China, which so far has maintained a positive year-to date performance, will face looming challenges in H2 as stimulus measures dry up. Overall, uncertainty is paralyzing global investment, lowering metals demand, and styming new metals supply, while success of the tariff objectives remains questionable. Despite lower industrial production growth rates, base metals prices are relatively supported by low metal stocks and concentrate shortages. Battery raw material prices however remain depressed in the face supply gluts. We expect these supply gluts to continue dampening battery metal markets with rebalancing reliant on high demand growth rather than supply response.