Rare earths: 5 things to look for in 2026

Geopolitics was the defining theme of the rare earth market of 2025, as rare earth export from China became a key negotiating point during trade disputes with the US. The resulting waxing and waning of restrictions led to a volatile trading and price environment. Growing global awareness of China's supply dominance, combined with rising protectionism and moves away from free trade, have driven increased investment in alternative supply chains. Two threads will shape the rare earth market in 2026: the success of these diversification efforts, and how China leverages its continued market dominance in the interim. Within this broader context, we identify five distinct themes that will shape the rare earth market in 2026.