SKU: 123711
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 15 January 2020

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Report summary

Chinese steel demand will finally peak in 2020. But with China responsible for half of the worlds steel demand, any divergence from this view will impact our global forecast. The biggest risk to our view remains Chinese demand upside – will the central government use steel-intensive construction stimulus to meet GDP targets? Aside from Chinese demand, there is plenty more happening in global steel markets so what should you watch for in 2020? In this insight we highlight five potential sources of surprise: • What risks do the European Green Deal and USMCA pose to steel? • Capacity; European exits, Chinese changes and Asian additions • A year of corporate activity set to make or break steel production • Surely steelmaking costs must fall this year? The reasons against that view are stacking up… • India’s big plans – can they pull it off in 2020?

Executive summary
Climate and trade policy to pose risks to our view
- The environment
- Trade
Capacity depletions in the west and additions in the east
- European exits
- Chinese changes
- India additions
Mergers, acquisitions and corporate activity to make or break steel production
Can iron ore prices stay high and push up steelmaking costs?
Can the Indian government execute ambitious and steel-intensive projects this year?