Chinese steel demand will finally peak in 2020. But with China responsible for half of the worlds steel demand, any divergence from this view will impact our global forecast. The biggest risk to our view remains Chinese demand upside – will the central government use steel-intensive construction stimulus to meet GDP targets? Aside from Chinese demand, there is plenty more happening in global steel markets so what should you watch for in 2020? In this insight we highlight five potential sources of surprise: • What risks do the European Green Deal and USMCA pose to steel? • Capacity; European exits, Chinese changes and Asian additions • A year of corporate activity set to make or break steel production • Surely steelmaking costs must fall this year? The reasons against that view are stacking up… • India’s big plans – can they pull it off in 2020?