Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - long-term outlook - Q3 2020
Report summary
The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the shift towards greener steelmaking technologies. In the long-term, as the engine of global steel demand growth shifts from China to India – and European environmental concerns grow – how will steelmaking technology evolve? In China, scrap based EAF production will take an increasing share of the market. India's demand growth will be supplied by additional integrated BF-BOF facilities. Europe is leading the way with emissions free steel production technology. The Middle East and North Africa has scope to raise DRI production. The Global steel market long-term outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the steel market out to 2040.
Table of contents
- 2020: China in a world of its own
- How long will the recovery take?
- 2020 marks an acceleration in the shift towards greener steelmaking
- Long-term price forecast
-
Steelmakers are in for a rough ride this year. But what awaits those that survive?
- China – peak steel demand in 2020?
- Houses are for living in
- China will produce over one billion tonnes of crude steel this year
- Can India be the new engine of global growth?
- Other contributors to global growth – big rates, but smaller tonnages
- Limited demand growth potential elsewhere
-
Supply
- Growers
- Adapters
- Stagnaters
-
China
- 2020-2025: upward revision
- Construction boosts another steel boom
- Entering the steel demand peak zone
- Crude steel production will surge above 1 Bt
- Long term: gradual contraction to 2040 and beyond
- Transportation will be the only positive growth sector in the long term
- BF-BOF will remain the dominant steelmaking route
-
India
- Demand
- Downward revision in construction sector demand
- but infrastructure sector demand will grow at a faster pace in the medium term
- Automotive sector reviving, with robust long-term outlook
- Supply
- Japan
- South Korea
- Indonesia and Vietnam
- Rest of Southeast Asia
-
EU and the UK
- Automotive
- Construction
- Trade and the macro-economy
- European steelmaking is evolving, slowly, to bring down emissions
- Falling production is bringing down emissions in the near term
- Steelmakers will have to act to limit future emissions
-
Turkey
- Steel demand is fragile but should not contract further
- Supported by exports, Turkish production has fared better
- Middle East
- North Africa
-
Egypt
- Demand outlook is fragile
- Egyptian steel production will not suffer like demand
- DRI production will increase in Egypt
-
Algeria
- Algerian production to grow despite weak domestic demand
-
Russia
- Russian automotive industry is under further pressure
- National projects are driving construction activity
- Steel production in Russia will outpace demand
-
Other CIS and Ukraine
- Ukrainian steel production will not return to its former glory
- Central Asian countries have strong growth prospects
-
USA
- Construction: infrastructure (slightly) up, commercial construction down
- Still bullish on residential, not anymore in commercial construction
- No change in manufacturing: automotive to decline post-2030; machinery to modestly grow
- Canada and Mexico
- Brazil
-
Other South America
- Lower iron ore prices to drive future cost reduction
- Metallurgical coal
- Iron ore
- EAFs unlikely to be cost competitive with BOFs without carbon pricing
- Average country costs
- BOF cash costs
- EAF cash costs
- Carbon costs
- Where to go from here?
- Scrap demand and prices
- Metallics price forecast
- Will Converging price premia prevail?
- Steel price forecast
- Indian price premia over China will continue to disappear
Tables and charts
This report includes 40 images and tables including:
- Global steel demand - including China where demand is set to grow - to fall by 5% this year
- but a 15% contraction is more severe for the world ex-China
- ASEAN steel demand by country
- Integrated steel projects across South-east Asian countries
- Locations of the projects
- Iran's steelmaking metallics balance
- Middle East steel demand by country
- Traditionally around 10% of global semis exports go to North Africa but exporting to the region has become increasingly difficult
- with the region potentially adding as much as 8Mtpa of capacity. In 2020 Africa will take just 7% of global semis trade.
- US steel trade with Mexico and Canada
- US vehicle trade with Mexico and Canada
- Brazil steel production and trade
- Brazil production and recovery
- South America (ex. Brazil) steel demand
- Crude steel production forecast changes
- Apparent steel consumption forecast changes
- Steel demand change in 2020 by sector
- Total population and working age percentage
- Urbanised population each decades
- Steel demand growth contribution by sector
- The CAGR of each steel consumption sector
- Crude steel production by route
- Steel demand by sector
- Automotive steel demand
- Crude steel production vs. exports
- Crude steel production share
- Key emission reducing projects in Europe
- Russian Federation National projects: investment shares by sector
- Russian exports should increase to close the emerging global supply gap after 2030
- US quality of infrastructure relative position vs infra spending
- FAST Act capital allocation
- INVEST Act capital allocation
- US real steel demand by sector
- Global average crude steel production costs
- Global crude steel costs 2020
- BOF versus EAF crude steel cash costs
- Europe EAF v. BOF costs
- US EAF V. BOF costs
- BOF crude steel costs by country
- EAF crude steel costs by country
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Global steel markets short-term outlook April 2024
Chinese demand remains under pressure but steady growth expected for India and mature markets in 2024
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024
The latest noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook forecasts global supply, demand and prices for molybdenum, vanadium and niobium.
$10,000
Commodity Market Report
LNG short-term analytics: Tender tracker
Monthly update of consolidated published buy-side tenders.
$4,000