Commodity Market Report

Steel short-term outlook August 2021

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31 August 2021

Steel short-term outlook August 2021

Report summary

Chinese steel demand recovered slower than expected in August, impacted by heavy rain in the north of the country and a spike in Covid cases in a few provinces. We expect a seasonal uptick in the next two months; however, upside is limited by a soft construction demand outlook. Production cuts are taking effect in China. This winter, the government will be well positioned to enforce its production cut policy as both domestic and export demand slow down. Also in this month’s short-term outlook: • How does the US infrastructure bill impact US construction steel demand? • How have Japan and South Korea fared in the past few months? • Will India maintain its production growth? • Are EU and US steel prices ready for a slowdown?

Table of contents

    • Steel demand recovers in August but not ideal
    • Steel supply to decline for the rest of 2021
    • Mill margins recovered, destocking pace will be key to steel prices in September
    • Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework: an infrastructure bill, not a steel one
    • Production: full recovery may not be seen in 2021
    • meanwhile, the appetite for imports is soaring!
    • European steel production catching up with pre-pandemic level
    • Post-lockdown rebound in European car sales is slowing down
    • Construction continues to show improvement but business sentiment in Europe is sliding
    • Steel prices to retreat but remain elevated
    • Strong steel production despite subdued domestic demand
    • but domestic demand to recover with range-bound steel prices
    • Growth to stutter in the second half
    • South Korea to bridge the demand gap with Japan
    • Iron ore
    • Coal
    • Scrap
    • Green steel initiatives
    • Other key industry developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Weekly rebar demand is recovering from bad weather impact (Mt)
  • HRC demand lackluster slowing amid weaker manufacturing (Mt)
  • August crude steel production to remain weak (Mt)
  • CISA crude steel production rates dipping (Mt/day)
  • Steel intensity for selected bridges
  • Upcoming planned capacity outages
  • Monthly production and utilisation rate
  • Steel and pig iron imports
  • EU-27+ UK crude steel production
  • Top 4 EU-27 + Turkey crude steel production
  • Steel HRC Northern Europe price
  • Steel rebar Northern Europe price
  • Loan growth indexed to March 2020
  • Steel exports supporting production
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Steel order book improving and inventory falling
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Key consumption indicators in the green zone

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Steel short-term outlook August 2021

    PDF 1.57 MB