UK Moray Firth exploration basin Report

Asset Report 20 December 2019

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Report summary

The UK's Moray Firth Basin is a proven province where significant oil and gas volumes have been discovered over the last four decades. Our outlook assumes companies will continue to focus on prospects in the Late Jurassic/Cretaceous play as this is where the material volumes are thought to exist. The giant Buzzard oil discovery of 2001 demonstrated the potential for large hydrocarbon finds within stratigraphic traps in the basin. While exploring for stratigraphic traps in the basin carries potential for larger finds, the difficulty in identifying hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs makes these prospects highrisk. Nonetheless it has continued to provide discoveries, including the large Golden Eagle discovery (2007) and Serenity (2019). Positive economics in our Outlook period are driven by the liquid nature of prospects, short lead times and attractive fiscal terms.

Key issues include:
- Key play characteristics
Wells drilled and success rate
Volumes discovered
Prospective resource potential
- Play inputs
- Creaming curve and key play data
- Model field pool size distribution
Prospective resource costs and underlying development assumptions
Licensing
Fiscal terms
TYP and outlook economics
- Prospect economics
- Late Jurassic/Early Cretaceous
- Expected monetary value (EMV)
Full cycle basin economics
- Full cycle economic analysis