In this insight we highlight the five key risks we think could have the most impact on our oil demand forecast. We are forecasting growth of 1.4 million b/d in 2017 driven by gains in the US alongside sustained growth in China and India and a recovery in commodity producing regions. However we expect global growth to decelerate to 0.9 million b/d in 2018 as Asia slowly loses steam and the downturn in European demand deepens. In 2017 the key downside risks come from China and the US while India poses an upside risk. On balance the risk appears weighted slightly to the downside. In 2018 since we are already on the bearish side of market expectations the risks appear to be weighted to the upside coming largely from Europe followed by the Middle East.