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Insight

Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens - updated H2 2022

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This insight includes the key charts and conclusions from our most recent global breakeven analysis, which was updated in line with the Global Oil Supply 10-year investment horizon outlook in October 2022. Breakeven costs are assigned to every element of our global liquids supply view allowing a detailed, comprehensive view of the global cost of supply. This analysis is a crucial part of our long-term oil price forecast.

Table of contents

  • Key OPEC countries contribute the cheapest sources of supply, dominating the lower end of the global oil cost curve
  • Supply from the US Lower 48, Canada and non-OPEC sits on the higher end of the cost curve
  • Shallow water supply is mainly low cost, however, deepwater and US Lower 48 onshore rely on higher cost supply to maintain production
  • Pre-FID projects globally and future drilling in the US Lower 48 will contribute 15 million b/d of supply over the next 10 years
  • Additional future sources of supply add a further 14 million b/d over the next 10 years; with 8 million b/d breaking even below $40/bbl

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Global liquids capacity in 2033 by breakeven

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Oil Cost Curves And Pre FID Breakevens Data Pack.xlsx

    XLSX 2.26 MB

  • Document

    Global Oil Cost Curves And Pre FID Breakevens H2 2022 Slidepack.pdf

    PDF 776.08 KB

  • Document

    Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens - updated H2 2022

    PDF 774.92 KB