The oil market got off to a turbulent start to the year, with political tensions between the US and Iran escalating rapidly following the killing of General Soleimani on 3 January 2020. Those US-Iran tensions have eased since then although they remain as an underlying source of risk in the oil market. Our forecast for supply and demand through the first half of 2020 shows an implied surplus. But several factors could destabilise this view toward either a worsening of the oversupply or a significant tightening of the market. We look at key factors that could influence the oil supply outlook and oil market in 2020, including geopolitics, US Lower 48, OPEC+ strategy, new project sanctions, and key non-OPEC growth projects.