Insight
Global oil supply: 5 trends to watch in 2020
Report summary
The oil market got off to a turbulent start to the year, with political tensions between the US and Iran escalating rapidly following the killing of General Soleimani on 3 January 2020. Those US-Iran tensions have eased since then although they remain as an underlying source of risk in the oil market. Our forecast for supply and demand through the first half of 2020 shows an implied surplus. But several factors could destabilise this view toward either a worsening of the oversupply or a significant tightening of the market. We look at key factors that could influence the oil supply outlook and oil market in 2020, including geopolitics, US Lower 48, OPEC+ strategy, new project sanctions, and key non-OPEC growth projects.
Table of contents
-
Geopolitics
- US tight oil growth deceleration – has a tipping point been reached?
- OPEC+ production restraint continues through 2020
- New project sanctions: volumes will be huge, but only 25% will be oil
- Will non-OPEC growth in 2020 surprise to the upside?
Tables and charts
This report includes 4 images and tables including:
- Upstream FIDs per year, number of projects
- Upstream FIDs per year, total resource
- Top five key non-OPEC growth countries 2020
- Top ten non-OPEC growth projects
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
08 March 2023
Global oil supply short-term update - March 2023
Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - March 2023
Three factors dictate our short-term outlook: pace of non-OPEC supply growth, scale of Russian supply losses and OPEC+ policy through 2023
$1,65009 February 2023
Global oil supply short-term update - February 2023
Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - February 2023
Limited changes to global supply as the market grapples with Russian sanctions and price caps and China’s encouraging demand recovery
$1,65002 February 2023
Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens - updated H2 2022
Insight
Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens - updated H2 2022
Pre-FID supply has become cheaper as companies continue to drive cost savings; 6 million b/d breaks even below $40/bbl
$6,000
