Insight
Implications of our tariff scenarios for oil and refining
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Report summary
The oil market is contending with uncertainty over tariffs. Our 26 May 2025 Horizon report, Trading cases: tariff scenarios for taxing times, presents three distinct scenarios from a trade truce to a full-scale trade war. This insight examines the implications of these three scenarios for the global oil market. We present the outlook for total oil demand, Lower 48 supply, the oil price and global composite refining margins in each scenario.
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