Libya oil exports resume as blockade lifted

The Libyan National Army (LNA) agreed on 18 September to lift a blockade on oil exports and production which it had imposed in January. This followed a deal between the LNA and elements of the Government of National Accord to ensure fair distribution of oil revenues, a sticking point in previous peace agreements. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), which is responsible for production and exports, subsequently commenced exports and production at some ports and fields. The first crude tanker to exit Eastern Libya since mid-January left Hariga on 25 September. Total production is reported to be over 300,000 b/d within weeks of the restart. Given the continued uncertainties, we estimate production could reach 500,000 b/d by the end of the year. Libya returning to sustained levels of pre-blockade production of around 1 million b/d remains an optimistic proposition, with the deal to lift the blockade still fragile.