Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional, OPEC, peak oil demand
Optimism is back in the US Lower 48 with operators adding over 200 horizontal rigs to date in 2017. This sets the stage for a second wave of tight oil growth – expected to last through the mid-2020s. The growing scale of this short-cycle time, flexible, marginal producer is disrupting the global oil market with implications for price. Can tight oil grow fast enough to offset the decline in conventional production we see from a lack of investment through the price rout, and meet growth in demand? The impact of tight oil on conventional production and producer countries is also explored. How will producer countries respond to tight oil, given their worsening fiscal positions? And what role will OPEC play? With geopolitical risk rising, what are the possible implications for supply and demand? Finally, we consider structural changes on the other side of the equation – demand. Will we see peak oil demand by 2035? If so, in which sectors? What does this all mean for price to 2035?
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