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Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional, OPEC, peak oil demand

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05 June 2017

Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional, OPEC, peak oil demand

Report summary

Optimism is back in the US Lower 48 with operators adding over 200 horizontal rigs to date in 2017. This sets the stage for a second wave of tight oil growth – expected to last through the mid-2020s. The growing scale of this short-cycle time, flexible, marginal producer is disrupting the global oil market with implications for price. Can tight oil grow fast enough to offset the decline in conventional production we see from a lack of investment through the price rout, and meet growth in demand? The impact of tight oil on conventional production and producer countries is also explored. How will producer countries respond to tight oil, given their worsening fiscal positions? And what role will OPEC play? With geopolitical risk rising, what are the possible implications for supply and demand? Finally, we consider structural changes on the other side of the equation – demand. Will we see peak oil demand by 2035? If so, in which sectors? What does this all mean for price to 2035?

Why buy this report?

This report can help you make informed strategic planning and investment decisions by allowing you to:

  • Mitigate risks associated with peak oil demand
  • Learn why US Tight Oil is disrupting the global oil market
  • Find out what this means for the long-term oil price

This report is based on data and insights from our oil analysts local to the markets they study. For more information, please get in touch with us.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Global Supply
      • Theme 1: US tight oil – how big and at what cost?
      • Theme 2: Tight oil vs deepwater: costs for conventional projects have further to fall
        • Why are deepwater costs taking so long to reset?
        • Breakevens for deepwater projects: lower, but a shrunken pool
      • Theme 3: OPEC production cuts, strategy and political risk
        • OPEC's commitment to production restraint
        • Global Demand
          • Theme 1: Peak oil demand into transport?
          • Theme 2: Electric vehicles – not so fast?
            • Why have EVs been slow to take off?
          • Theme 3: Petrochemical feedstock demand is robust to 2035

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • US tight oil production growth
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Global supply outages: base case assumes relatively benign view
  • Global oil demand by major product
  • Oil demand for petrochemical feedstocks
  • Oil demand displaced by electric vehicles

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global supply outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.03 MB

  • Document

    Global demand outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.19 MB

  • Document

    Global price outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long term outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 3.74 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional, OPEC, peak oil demand

    ZIP 8.17 MB

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017 data.xls

    XLS 354.50 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional, OPEC, peak oil demand

    PDF 413.29 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 251.70 KB