Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils long-term outlook H2 2020

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26 November 2020

Macro Oils long-term outlook H2 2020

Report summary

In our H2 2020 long-term update, the global oil market continues to face significant uncertainty. A demand recovery is in sight with effective vaccines announced recently. But this update shows a greater effect from the pandemic than we expected in our spring long-term outlook. In this report, we extend our outlook to 2050. Key topics and highlights include: • Prices are adjusted lower in the medium-term, as downward revisions to demand outpace those to supply • An assessment of the outlook for demand post-pandemic and the timing of a peak • How weaker prices and changing tight oil operator behaviour are having an impact on the scale and pace of onshore US Lower 48 growth • Increasing reliance on OPEC capacity with non-OPEC supply in decline from the early-2030s

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