Macro Oils short-term outlook: April 2021
Report summary
Table of contents
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Global supply: easing of OPEC+ production restraint through July in line with our assumptions
- OPEC+ maintains a cautious stance, with substantial production increases still deferred until Q3 2021
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions focus on North America supply in 2022
- US Lower 48: higher prices position the Permian to set new records
- Higher prices support supply upside in 2022
- Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) faces possible shutdown with a decision imminent
- OPEC: minor revisions as OPEC+ meeting outcome is in line with expectations
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Global demand : vaccine deployment fuels the demand recovery
- Global liquids demand this year: H2 2021 strength offsets Q1 2021 weakness
- Q1 2021:
- Q2 to Q4 2021:
- 2022: Demand exceeds pre-crisis levels in H2 2022
- Risks to the outlook
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