Macro oils short-term outlook: April 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 07 April 2023

Get this report

$2,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

Brent prices fell into the low $70s/bbl during March, as fears of recession accelerated during the US-based banking crisis. On 2 April, OPEC+ announced another production cut. That news triggered a recovery in prices back to where they were in early March. In this report, we show how the impact of the announced OPEC+ cut means a smaller reduction than 1.66 million b/d and assess the implication for our short-term price forecasts. Highlights this month include: • Details on the OPEC+ new production target and what it means • Russia’s strong first quarter 2023 performance and what it means for the rest of the year • China still on track to show nearly 1 million b/d demand growth this year • What caused a significant downward revision to Q1 2023 US demand

Global supply: growth slows in 2023 as OPEC+ agree further production cuts
- Non-OPEC supply: strong domestic crude runs in Russia drives upward revision to 2023
- Russia extends 500,000 b/d cut through to the end of 2023
- US Lower 48: Permian production continues to grow strongly in 2023
- Lower 48 oil rig count is steady and frac fleet count has bounced back
- OPEC supply: OPEC+ agrees to additional voluntary cuts of 1.66 million b/d from May
Global demand: China underpins global growth this year despite a bumpy recovery and weakening external market
- 2023 liquids demand by key markets
- China
- US
- Europe
- Global outlook for 2024
- Risks to the outlook