Commodity Market Report

Macro oils short-term outlook: August 2022

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04 August 2022

Macro oils short-term outlook: August 2022

Report summary

Oil prices continued to slide during July as signs of demand erosion added up along with the risk of a recession – pointing towards weaker demand growth. Brent averaged $112.60 in July, compared with our forecast for $113.00/bbl. OPEC+ agreed to only a small 100,000 b/d increase for September, which dampened expectations of a larger adjustment upward in the wake of President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia. Downward price pressure will persist if it becomes clearer the US and EU have moved into a recession. Highlights of our early August Macro Oils Monthly Update include: • Forecast for OPEC production after 3 August meeting • Russia production and the US price cap • US supply still slow and steady growth • Price and demand in our recession case

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook August 2022 Data.xlsx

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