The market is becoming increasingly concerned about the pace of rebalancing ahead of what appears to be a wave of supply forecast to hit the market next year. We too have become more concerned. Growth in US lower 48 production, coupled with stronger than expected Libyan and Nigerian production has reduced the implied stock draw forecast through the second half of this year. Depending on tight oil growth from the US and OPEC decisions around the existing production cut agreement, the market could find itself well oversupplied into 2018. We examine the likely response of US tight oil to a flat $40 and $45/ bbl WTI price to see the range of possibilities for 2018. We also discuss the likely behaviour of OPEC and other key non-OPEC countries in response to the coming surge in US production.