Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils short-term outlook: June 2021

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Oil markets continue to improve, with Brent standing above $70/bbl, as investors are moving into commodities in this post-pandemic recovery phase. In contrast, Covid-restriction extensions dent Asia Pacific demand, as India revisions lead our downward view for 2021. Key topics include: - Raising our 2021 Brent price forecast - Our forecast for Lower 48 supply with higher crude prices - Strong demand recovery in US and China for 2021 - The challenge for Colombia production recovery amid civil unrest

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC: minor revisions driven by North America
    • Colombia: widespread protests curtail crude oil production
    • US Lower 48: forecast remains broadly unchanged as excess cash goes toward debt repayment
    • OPEC: outlook unchanged as OPEC+ continue with planned easing of cuts
    • Iran nuclear deal talks continue as Presidential elections loom
    • Venezuela: downward revision of 60,000 b/d for May
    • Development ramps up ahead of OPEC+ cuts easing
    • 2021: H2 2021 to see strong demand recovery amid economic growth, end of Covid-19 restrictions in major economies
    • China, North America and Europe: H2 2021 recovery outlook brightens
    • Emerging economies: Restrictions, lagging vaccination pace slow the recovery
    • 2022: Global demand expected to break the 100 million b/d level
    • Risks to the outlook

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook June 2021 Slidepack.pdf

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    Macro Oils short-term outlook: June 2021

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook June 2021 Data.xlsx

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook June 2021 Slide Charts.xls

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