Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: June 2024
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Report summary
OPEC+ held its meeting on 1-2 June and agreed to rollover one set of the voluntary cuts that was due to expire at end-June. The 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts by eight countries will remain in place for Q3 2024 and then return in small increments through September 2025. Significantly for the market, the increases each month can be delayed if prices weaken. Highlights of this monthly update include: • Price reacts negatively to OPEC+ agreement • Impact of OPEC+ cut extension through Q3 2024 and plan to return some volumes thereafter • Maintenance and downtime on several FPSOs impacts Brazil output • A slowing recovery in global manufacturing could temper the distillate demand rebound this year
Table of contents
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Global supply: OPEC+ surprises the market with an agreement on production limits through 2025 and a plan to phase out some voluntary cuts from October 2024
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Russia, Oman and Brazil offset by upgrades to US NGLs and Malaysia
- Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 250,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ extends baseline cuts through 2025, whilst lifting additional voluntary cuts
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Global demand: A slowing recovery in global manufacturing could temper the distillate rebound this year
- Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- United States
- Europe
- Global outlook for 2025
- Risks to the outlook
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