Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
After unusual pressure from the US administration to lift its production, at its 4 November meeting, OPEC+ announced a supply boost of 400,000 b/d for December, in line with its 18 July 2021 agreement. For OPEC+, doubts remain on the reality of the oil supply crunch. We remain cautious also as global supply looks more than adequate to meet demand. A key reason is demand remains in a recovery posture as slowing economic growth and the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on mobility dilute the upside potential of gas-to-oil switching. This Macro Oils short-term outlook highlights include: • Lower 48 activity returning to where it matters: the Permian • Global supply to exceed pre-pandemic peak in 2023 • Persistent Covid-19 in Asia impacts recovery • Latest on rising OPEC+ production
Table of contents
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Global supply: OPEC+ rollover again, still steady as it goes
- Non-OPEC Supply: Minor changes to the outlook, US NGLs ramp up
- US Lower 48: completions outpace drilling two-to-one
- OPEC: agreement to continue existing easing of OPEC+ production cuts
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Global demand: Recovery continues as storm clouds gather
- 2021 and 2022: Recovery faces headwinds
- 2023: Asia-Pacific demand growth accelerates
- Risks to the outlook
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Table: Risks to the Q4 2021 and annual 2022 global demand outlook
What's included
This report contains:
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