Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 09 November 2023

This report is currently unavailable

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

Prices have fallen in early November on reduced fears in the market of the Israel-Hamas war spilling over into a region wide conflict. After the 7 October terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel, prices rose on the risk the war could expand and affect oil supply. Brent traded as high as $95/bbl on 20 October in response to this risk. As the war has continued without a conflagration, prices began declining in late October and early November. In this Monthly Update we assess the outlook for supply, demand and prices through 2025. Highlights this month focus on: • Global jet fuel demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels by the summer of 2025 • Majors will dominate onshore Lower 48 production following recent acquisitions • Renewed efforts to tackle the security challenges improves Nigeria production • Global crude oil floating-roof tank storage data shows steady decline through Q3 2023

2024-2025 outlook
Global supply: non-OPEC upgrades to delay easing of OPEC voluntary supply cuts?
Non-OPEC production gains momentum in Q3 2023
US Lower 48 production on track to add close to 850,000 b/d in 2023
- US majors will dominate Lower 48 production following recent deals
OPEC supply remains steady as cuts continue; revised Saudi Arabia outlook for 2024
Global demand: While the outlook remains resilient, risks have intensified towards the downside
- Liquids demand by key markets
Global outlook for 2024 and 2025
Risks to the outlook