Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2023

Prices have fallen in early November on reduced fears in the market of the Israel-Hamas war spilling over into a region wide conflict. After the 7 October terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel, prices rose on the risk the war could expand and affect oil supply. Brent traded as high as $95/bbl on 20 October in response to this risk. As the war has continued without a conflagration, prices began declining in late October and early November. In this Monthly Update we assess the outlook for supply, demand and prices through 2025. Highlights this month focus on: • Global jet fuel demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels by the summer of 2025 • Majors will dominate onshore Lower 48 production following recent acquisitions • Renewed efforts to tackle the security challenges improves Nigeria production • Global crude oil floating-roof tank storage data shows steady decline through Q3 2023