Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils short-term outlook: October 2020

Get this report

$2,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

06 October 2020

Macro Oils short-term outlook: October 2020

Report summary

Uncertainty has left the H2 2020 oil market in stasis amid concerns of how a coronavirus "second wave" winter could impact demand. As we extend our outlook to 2022, the annual average for Brent is forecast at $58 per barrel (nominal), adjusted lower by $2 from the long term forecast of $60 per barrel nominal. In addition, it isn't clear how long Libya's increase in supply can be sustained with the recent easing of the blockage in place since January 2020. Highlights of our Macro Oils short-term outlook include: • OPEC production forecast and assumptions through 2022 • Libya production amidst uncertainty about its duration • Threats to the demand recovery linger as Covid-19 persists • Domestic air travel rebounds in China, product demand recovery diverges in India

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC: outlook remains broadly unchanged at top level
    • US Lower 48: return to growth in 2022
    • Strike action shuts in six fields in Norway
    • Outlook extended to 2022: managing declines will be key
    • OPEC supply: production rises due to easing of OPEC+ restraint and recovery in Libya
    • H2 2020 : Pandemic sets the terms for economic, demand recovery
    • 2021 and 2022: Demand to return to pre-crisis levels by Q2 2022
    • Regional demand outlooks: China leads the recovery, Europe’s demand under threat
    • Asia: Domestic air travel rebounds in China, product demand recovery diverges in India
    • Europe: Accelerating new cases of Covid-19 is increasing the risk of stricter lockdowns being re-introduced
    • Middle East: National lockdown re-introduced in Israel as the country experiences a surge in new infections.
    • US: wildfires keeps pressure on US demand
    • Risks to the outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Global transport fuel demand outlook, 2021-2022 vs 2019

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Macro Oils short-term outlook October 2020 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.65 MB

  • Document

    Macro Oils short-term outlook October 2020 data.xlsx

    XLSX 2.21 MB

  • Document

    Macro Oils short-term outlook: October 2020

    PDF 814.53 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2020 slide charts.xls

    XLS 1.21 MB