Commodity Market Report

Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2022

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07 October 2022

Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2022

Report summary

It sounds shocking: OPEC+ agrees to a 2 million b/d production cut. However, the devil is in the details. The impact of the agreement is muted in our analysis by the fact the reductions are from the OPEC+ target, not actual output. Secondly, we have made downward revisions to global oil demand for 2023 that soften the effect of the expected impact on OPEC+ production. The net effect is relatively light, with a small downward adjustment to our price forecast for next year. We continue to expect an upward trend for oil prices mostly due to the initial impact of the EU Russia oil import ban. See our Macro Oils Monthly Update for more on: • Short-term forecasts through 2024 • What are the sources of demand growth in 2023 despite weakening economic performance • Russia: further pressure expected on production volumes as the EU embargo takes effect • The impact of the OPEC+ agreement on November and 2023 supply

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook October 2022 Slidepack.pdf

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook October 2022 Data.xlsx

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    Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2022

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook October 2022 Slide Charts.xls

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