Macro oils short-term outlook: September 2022

Oil prices fell in August, as recession fears gripped the market, causing widespread expectations demand growth would collapse. In our updated short-term report, we expect oil demand to rise over 2 million b/d this year despite renewed Covid-19 restrictions in China and weakening economic performance in Europe and the US. Risk to Russia’s oil exports remain as a proposed price cap on Russia oil exports triggered a threat from President Putin to cut all the nation’s oil energy exports ahead of the EU Russia oil import ban that goes into effect in December. This month’s short-term report includes our views on: • The Iran nuclear deal talks and OPEC+ meeting • Status of inventories as government stock releases continue • Demand outlook as recession risk continues • Downward adjustments to Russia production for 2023?