North America Crude Market strategic planning outlook

One year after the Russia/Ukraine war began, extreme price volatility has beset the oil market with WTI prices ~30% off year-ago highs as the market grapples with unknowns of both crude and product trade re-optimization. The US has played a critical role in backfilling Russian volumes into Europe, a theme we expect to play out for years to come for US exports. A stronger onshore growth profile for US L48 in this outlook boosts our view on waterborne exports and the infrastructure needs to facilitate increased US volumes into export markets. The boost to onshore production growth in this outlook drives a 400 kb/d higher peak (~12.0 million b/d) in L48 supply three years sooner (2027). US exports are set to surpass ~5 million b/d within the next 4-5 years, an increase of 40% from 2022 levels.