Commodity Market Report
North America crude markets short-term outlook: October 2024
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Report summary
In the past year, US turnaround seasons have significantly lessened domestic crude runs as refiners caught up on deferred maintenance. However, the trend of heavy turnaround seasons appears to be broken as we enter Fall 2024. A mild maintenance season in the US Gulf Coast and Midcon comes at a time of low crude storage levels and a slew of hurricane-related supply disruptions. How will this refinery maintenance season stack up against previous cycles? And how will unseasonably strong crude runs affect storage levels, exports, and price differentials? In this outlook, we take a holistic look at the various changes that are defining the turn of seasons.
Table of contents
- Refinery turnaround season outlook
- Supply maintenance and TMX drive lower Canada-to-US pipe flows
- Cushing storage falls near operational minimums
- US L48 supply: moderate growth expected through 2026
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What's included
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