Oil and refining in a net zero world

The global oil market faces an array of uncertainties including political risk; the timing of when oil demand peaks; how quickly demand declines once a peak is reached and the supply reaction to these demand and price uncertainties. Moreover, the timing of the energy transition is unclear. In this Insight, we present an outcome to these uncertainties—our global net zero scenario—and explore the implications for the global oil market and refining industry. Highlights of the Insight include: • Demand outlook under the net zero scenario and a comparison to our base case • The oil price outlook in the scenario and the implications for supply • What does this scenario mean for the refining industry and crude slate • Implications for the gross margin profile