Global liquids supply growth of almost 1.4 million b/d is forecast in 2015, despite the low oil price. This will be driven by US tight oil production as it continues to grow strongly into the first quarter, but growth is expected to disappear during the second half of the year. OPEC is assumed to maintain its stance on oil production. Companies will reduce capital expenditure, and we will see project deferrals. Shut-in of fields is possible and costs will be reduced for future projects.
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US tight oil production growth will be robust into the second quarter, but then disappear
We assume OPEC does not cut output to support oil prices in 2015