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Pre-FID oil projects: global breakeven analysis and cost curves
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Report summary
We have conducted a comprehensive breakeven analysis of future oil developments in Wood Mackenzie’s database. These projects are critical for future oil supply and comprise conventional pre-FID projects and future drilling in US onshore Lower 48 plays. Key findings include: Half of 2025 production from future developments is uneconomic at US60/bbl Brent. Pre-FID deepwater and ultra-deepwater projects sit high on the cost curve and are at greatest risk of delay. Onshore, tight oil and shallow water projects typically have the most robust economic. Breakeven analysis provides support for an oil price floor in the longer term of above US$70/bbl.
Table of contents
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Comprehensive breakeven analysis
- Half of production from future developments is uneconomic at US$60/bbl Brent
- Deepwater and ultra-deepwater projects sit high on the cost curve and are at greatest risk of delay
- Onshore, tight oil and shallow water projects typically have the most robust economics
- Breakeven analysis provides support for an oil price floor in the longer term of above US$70/bbl
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- Cost curve: cumulative production by breakeven in 2025 – by resource theme
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