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Venezuela debt default: implications for oil

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Report summary

Venezuela faces considerable debt repayments in 2017 and debt default is a key risk. Economic strain is worsening as inflation skyrockets. In a worst case scenario, debt default in 2017 could impact over 300,000 b/d of oil supply in 2018. Heavy oil projects in the Orinoco would be most affected. This would help ease the global oversupply in the second half of 2018 and be price supportive.

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Table of contents

  • Growing political pressure, but no major reform anticipated
  • Economic strain worsening as inflation skyrockets and debt repayments mount
  • Over 300,000 b/d of oil production in 2018 at risk if default occurs in 2017
  • Market fundamentals would tighten in H2 2017 and be price supportive

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