Latin America upstream in brief Report

Insight 17 November 2023

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Report summary

The Latin America upstream in brief provides Wood Mackenzie's view on key industry events in Mexico and the Caribbean, Central and South America as they unfold. Declining legacy onshore production has been met with a highly active offshore sector. Discoveries in Guyana, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are reshaping the upstream landscape south of the border. Argentina also stands out through its burgeoning shale developments, one of the few bright spots for unconventionals outside the United States. Strong licensing activity, led by Brazil and Mexico, has drawn a diverse landscape of players exploring new opportunities in the region. We cover these issues, and more, in the Latin America upstream in brief.

Petrobras unveils its 2024-2028+ strategy
Mexico’s FLNG Lakach development is cancelled due to capex increases
Strategic pivot for Canacol: navigating challenges in Colombia and exploring new horizons in Bolivia
Is Brazil oil output at risk? We outline a potential 0.6 million b/d downside in our peak forecast
Petronas announces material oil discovery in Suriname’s Block 52 while next bid round gets clarity
Guyana gets good news: offshore bid round making progress and a very successful outcome at the Lancetfish-2 well
EUR/well dataset is now live in Lens! Fields with higher EUR/well will drive deepwater production growth in Latin America
Chevron gains stake in coveted Guyana production
Presidential elections in Ecuador
New easing of sanctions for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector but fast output recovery still challenging
Webinar – Fueling the Future: Latin America's Upstream Opportunities & Challenges
Renewed shallow-water exploration opportunities in Trinidad and Tobago
Could the permit to drill in Potiguar Basin unlock the Equatorial Margin potential?
Guyana's first bid round closes with encouraging interest
Colombia's dynamic year in review: a concise recap of key events
Petrobras produces the first oil from Marlim’s second revitalisation FPSO
Another gas show for Shell in Brazil with the Suçuarana well
Argentina Primary Elections
Brazilian pre-salt gas reinjection dilemma
Colombia’s fiscal reform: following the money trail
Venezuela’s respite after sanctions ease
Latin American countries keep block acquisition active
Brazilian Tax Reform
Nohoch incident affects Pemex oil and gas production
Visit to operators in Argentina
End of export tax for crude oil - Brazil
Woodside's first after-merger major investment decision is in Mexico
Suriname receives multiple bids on three offshore blocks
Petrobras kicks off Marlim revitalisation project in Brazil
Environmental permit issues could hamper the future exploration of frontier areas in Brazil
Equinor sanctions its second operated deepwater project in Brazil
Upper Cretaceous opportunities in Uruguay, similar to Namibia discoveries, gain momentum
Initial findings from the Wei-1 well in Guyana are encouraging
Petrobras under new management
Kan discovery in Mexico’s shallow water, another IOC success
Guyana delays one of the most highly anticipated bid rounds in 2023
Petrobras to honour signed contracts in Brazil – the remaining opportunities are under review
Permitting issues might again postpone Brazil’s Foz do Amazonas Basin exploration
Eni's Yatzil discovery kicks off drilling campaign in Mexico
Vista Energy decides to narrow its focus to unconventional developments
Energy security motivates an easing of sanctions on Venezuela, resuming an interest for a joint development with Trinidad & Tobago
Gustavo Petro makes good on his word: Colombia to see restricted development and higher government share
Successful onshore bid results in Trinidad & Tobago
PetroReconcavo expands its presence in the Reconcavo basin
What's the future of Bolivia upstream?
Caution in the first Brazil's pre-salt PSC bid round under permanent offer regime
Suriname's optimistic about upcoming deep-water bid round
Guyana tightens terms for upcoming bid round
Could Petrobras’ Aram discovery bring a new breath to the Brazilian oil industry?
Wintershall farms into Hokchi
The rise of independent operators in Brazil: will these companies perform?
Yarrow-1 and Sailfin-1 make it nine 2022 discoveries for Guyana's Stabroek
Higher rig rates are here to stay – Petrobras set to sign multi-year contracts worth US$3.1BN
Ecuador launched Intracampos II round kicking off Latin America upcoming auction agenda
Easing sanctions on Venezuela can have a limited impact on domestic oil production
Rota 3 pipeline startup is postponed again: will that affect giant pre-salt fields like Buzios?
Petrobras divestment program taking a u-turn?
Brazil's "open acreage" pre-salt round: who is in, who is not
FPSO cost inflation impacts Búzios economics
APA makes its first operated discovery in Suriname with Baja-1
Colombia’s Caribbean hits the jackpot again
Could Alto de Cabo Frio Central discovery end the 10-year pre-salt commercial discovery drought?
New deepwater discovery puts Colombia’s exploration in the spotlight
Seven discoveries so far in 2022 on Guyana’s Stabroek block
Ecuador’s oil production loss contrasts with plans to increase output
Recent discoveries in Namibia’s Orange Basin are already impacting Latin America’s licensing rounds
BW Energy snatches two clusters from Petrobras divestment plan
Colombia's election of new president generates uncertainty to oil and gas industry
New breath for deepwater exploration in Trinidad and Tobago
Pemex to drill exploration well Popoca-1EXP nearby Eni’s Amoca-Mitzon-Tecoalli fields
CGX and Frontera confirm Kawa-1 well results; de-risking inboard play potential
Petrobras sells its Albacora Leste stake to PetroRio for US$2.2 billion
Navitas Petroleum steps up as operator of Sea Lion development
Brazil’s third open acreage round closes above expectations
ExxonMobil and partners take the final investment decision (FID) for Yellowtail’s FPSO
Talos announces Zama unitisation process finalization
Brazil’s Atlanta field to progress to full development
Seacrest buys Norte Capixaba Cluster and debuts as an operator in Brazil
Guyana has a strong 2022 start
Petrobras sells Potiguar cluster for US$1.38 billion
New discoveries in the Andean Region
Wintershall maintains its Mexican portfolio
Wintershall Dea departing from Brazil signals more delays in the Potiguar Basin
Vista grows its footprint in the liquids windows of Vaca Muerta
Pemex intends to revive Lakach deepwater gas project
Equinor gets environmental green light to explore Argentina’s offshore
Brazil shakes up its 2022 licencing plan
Lukoil confirms its first discovery in Mexico's block 12
Shell signs PSC contract with Trinidad and Tobago for Manatee development
GeoPark divests all operated blocks in Argentina
Second take in Brazil’s Surplus DRO licensing: borderline economics may limit interest again
A third dry hole fails to dent hopes for Guyana's Canje block
Brazil's 17 th licensing round closes with low interest
- Cataback comes in as Stabroek's 21st discovery
- Harbour Energy explores options to exit the Sea Lion project
Petrobras divestment evolves with deals closed and new opportunities added
Second explosion stops production at Pemex’s Ku-Maloob-Zaap platform
Brazil’s Concession Round 17: questionable attractiveness of frontier blocks
Ongoing discussion: Ecuador pushes for investment by expanding the new PSC
Petrobras takes final investment decision (FID) for Mero’s fourth FPSO
Eni confirms its second discovery in Mexico's Area 10
Brazilian decommissioning: little progress since the new resolution
TotalEnergies and Equinor withdraw from Venezuelan extra heavy oil project
Compañía General de Combustibles (CGC) acquires Sinopec Argentina
Mexico to concede Zama’s operatorship to Pemex
Lukoil acquires 50% on Ichalkil-Pokoch project in Mexico
Petrobras successfully divests Polo Alagoas to Petromais
Bolivia tough fiscal terms challenges future developments
Shell extends its position in Vaca Muerta's black oil window
Brazil M&A case study: quantifying the upside potential
Mixed results in the Suriname shallow-water bid roundclosing
Brazil M&A: operator landscape grows
Equinor sanctions first IOC-operated pre-salt development with the billion-barrel Bacalhau
Colombia protests push production to decade low
Pemex holds over half of Zama resources, according to third-party study
Western Gulf of Mexico's recent exploration results and potential production growth
Positive move towards Block 192 new contract terms in Peru
Argentina sets new guidelines for firm gas exports during the summer months
Signature bonuses reduced by 75% for the second transfer-of-rights DRO round
Mexico’s energy ministry to determine Zama unitisation agreement
Pemex announces Dzimpona-1 discovery with plans to create a production complex with nearby fields
Tecpetrol and Pampa Energía offer gas to cover winter peak in Argentina
Proposed hydrocarbon trade regulation suspended by judge
3R Petroleum buys additional Brazilian fields from Petrobras’s divestment
Petrobras CEO to be replaced as political pressure mounts
Petrobras and ExxonMobil strike oil at a pre-salt exploration well
Mexican regulator approves 15 more exploratory concessions to Pemex
Guyana and Suriname have different fortunes in early 2021 exploration results
Bolivia: Repsol closes out the year with tenth discovery of 2020
Latin America upstream: 5 things to look for in 2021
Regional onshore oil mature fields can still deliver significant value
YPF dominates volume and price in Argentina's gas incentive programme
Pan American Energy extends its position in Vaca Muerta’s black oil window
Petronas makes its first discovery offshore Suriname
Brazil’s second open acreage round succeeds amid covid pandemic
Petrobras doubles down on resilience in its Strategy Day
Argentina launches broad gas price incentive programme
PetroRio takes over operatorship of two pre-salt fields from BP
Petrobras releases the teaser for 50% stake in the Marlim cluster
Mixed results for ExxonMobil’s Tanager well on the Kaieteur block, Guyana
Touchstone Exploration is actively moving forward in Trinidad and Tobago project
Colombian PPAA third cycle starts with bids to all the offered blocks
Tango FLNG project between YPF and Exmar comes to an early end
New administration needs to strive to revive Bolivia’s oil and gas sector
Occidental sells its onshore Colombian assets to the Carlyle Group
Ecopetrol launches mature fields bid round in Colombia
Petrobras puts Brazil's Albacora and Albacora Leste fields up for sale
Total quits Brazil's Equatorial Margin
ExxonMobil takes the final investment decision (FID) in the Payara project in Guyana
Pemex presents its 2021 budget led by key asset investment and new areas evaluation
Petrobras slashes five-year E&P spend by 30%
Compañía General de Combustibles (CGC) begins gas extraction from its innovative storage project in Southern Argentina
Pemex hits lowest low in 40 years
Mexican regulator approves three new concessions to Pemex
Enauta farms down at Manati gas field
Shut-in wells from Vaca Muerta come back strongly during June
Argentina’s liquids production recovers, driven by unconventional assets
Lack of gas infrastructure challenges Petrobras’ Sergipe-Alagoas project
Mexican exploration and production commitments put on hold
Major oil discovery in Block 58 offshore Suriname
Brazil offshore decommissioning in the 2020s
Petrobras doubles its FPSO schedule
Unconventional assets lead production shut-ins in Argentina
Using Wood Mackenzie Lens to power Upstream insights and analysis
Webinar: After the crash – what’s changed in Latin America upstream?
Bahamas Petroleum Company doubles down on exploration strategy
After the crash – what’s changed in Latin America upstream?
Are Latam NOCs prepared for the tough road ahead?
Brazil is the third largest country in decommissioning capex this decade
Private operators pave their way in Mexico
How have Andean countries reacted to the low oil price scenario?
Talos and Pemex unitisation: 120 days to reach an agreement
Qatar Petroleum farms into Total’s blocks, Shell bows out
Repsol plunges into Mexican Deepwaters; wins big
Brazil's 2020 rounds officially suspended
Fiscal burden to threaten new pre-salt frontier in Brazil?
Last call for Venezuelan waivers
Ecuador’s SOTE and OCP pipelines interrupt operation s
Apache and Total announce the second deepwater discovery in Suriname
Rosneft terminates all Venezuelan assets
Venezuela's heavy oil in hot water
Latin America’s 2020 oil production can be hit hard by the oil price crash
Operators to trim 20% of exploration budgets in Brazil this year
Buzios’s fourth FPSO makes Brazil’s output reach a new record
Eni announces second discovery in Mexico, expects to extend its good run
Vaca Muerta will wait for signals from new authorities
Long-awaited FIDs to be taken and production ramping up
Will Brazil’s pre-salt exploration wells disappoint?
US sanctions on Venezuela have taken a hard hit on Trinidad’s gas industry
Encouraging results in Colombia’s Lower Magdalena Valley discovery
Drilling permits challenge Brazil Equatorial Margin potential
Brazil's PetroRio buys FPSO and 80% of Tubarão Martelo oil field
New gas discoveries breathe life into the T&T economy
Stabroek block strike of success continues with 16th discovery and resource upgrade
A major change in Brazil’s PSC regime looks closer
Pemex delays development of Zama
A good start to the year for Brazil’s pre-salt
PDVSA falls short as operator
Repsol’s Carapa-1 well comes below expectations
ExxonMobil announces Liza’s first oil in Guyana
Total acquires a 50% stake from Apache in Suriname’s Block 58
Can the PSC terms be blamed for Brazil’s failure to attract IOC interest in the latest rounds?
Chevron exits upstream Colombia with sale to Hocol
Colombia's PPAA keeps bolstering the E&P sector
Dominican Republic awards block in first licensing round
Petrobras to sell 30% stake in Brazil’s Frade to PetroRio
Geopark increases its presence in Colombia
What is the future of bid rounds in Brazil?
Petrobras has returned to the headlines in Brazil’s rounds
Exxonmobil, BP and Shell joined Petrobras and stand out after Brazil’s recent rounds
- Operator diversity 21 years after the E&P market opening
- A successful market opening: BP surpassed Shell, while Repsol, Chevron and Qatar Petroleum doubled acreage
Brazil’s Transfer of Rights surplus round: a real test to capital discipline
Brazil’s 17th Round – Will the lingering above-ground risks remain a significant hurdle for the frontier acreages?
Ecopetrol increases its pre-salt presence in Brazil
Brazil's Concession Round 16: a multitude of operators and record bonus
Chevron to take 40% of three Shell’s deep-water blocks
Four events in worthy of attention that might bring Pemex farm-outs back
Petrofac finds it exit - Perenco to acquire remaining Mexico assets
Colombia announces new round and concedes to fracking pilot
Brazil's onshore might finally get its glory
Mexico: Will the government be able to get Pemex back into shape?
Gran Tierra on the hot foot, spudding first well in less than a year after the Intracampos licensing round
Primary election result wreaks economic instability to Argentina
Pemex gets to keep Round Zero acreage
Petrobras has turned a corner. But can it deliver peer-leading growth?
Exploration success in Guyana beyond the Stabroek block
Open process for new gas pipeline in Argentina
Brazilian upstream market more diverse than ever
A US$190 million deal marks 3R Petroleum’s debut as an operator in Brazil
Ecopetrol in Midland Permian tie-up with Oxy
Washington Venezuela sanctions: Between a rock and a hard place
ConocoPhillips farms into two Vaca Muerta blocks with Wintershall Dea
First Liza FPSO set sail en route to Guyana
Petrobras fully divests three mature fields in Brazil
Back to licensing rounds: Colombia's Permanent Offer (PPAA) results
The Dominican Republic joins other Caribbean countries with the launch of its first bid round
Colombia’s conventional activity picks up while uncons remain unsuccessful
Zama appraisal campaign closes big
Foreign oil companies move forward with exploration work in offshore Brazil

Tables and charts

This report includes 166 images and tables including:

Five-year corporate budget up 31%
Lakach, Piklis and Kunah offshore gas fields
Canacol's blocks in Bolivia

Jobo-Medellin pipeline project
Brazil’s oil production under different scenarios
FPSOs historical (installation date) and Woodmac’s forecast (first oil dates)
Shallow Offshore 2 Bid Round (SHO2)
Guyana's first offshore bid round awards eight new blocks
Average EUR per well for drilled and proposed deepwater and ultra-deepwater production wells by production start year, by basin and by project status
Lens screenshot showing average EUR per well and development wells per field
Top companies by average production during 2023 (excluding PDVSA)
Shallow water competitive bid round blocks
Brazilian Equatorial Margin map. Pitu and Morpho-1 wells location
Older stories
Blocks receiving bids
Timeline of events in Colombia
Marlim's operational costs profile
Latest pre-salt exploration well results
Impacts on reserves and oil & gas revenues due to lower injection rates
Change in government revenue, US$MM
Venezuela short-term production forecast
Latam bid round review
Fiscal Terms
Cantarell, Kumaza and Ayatsil production
Argentina liquids production forecast
Argentina gas production forecast
Emission intensity by source, Scope 1 and 2 (average 2028-2045)
Suriname block operators with on offer blocks 63, 65 and 67 highlighted
Companies' presence in deep-water of Equatorial Margin
Equinor’s deepwater production outside Norway (historical and forecast)
Uruguay offshore blocks
Wei-1 well
Discovered volumes shallow-water 2009-2023
Kan-1 location
Guyana blocks available for bids highlighted in blue
Morpho well (Foz do Amazonas)
Dois Irmãos block and Aram's appraisal well
Yatzil-1 exp location
Assets acquired by Aconcagua in Neuquén and Rio Negro
Gas fields sharing a maritime border
Bid round results
Maha Energy's portfolio and nearby fields operated by PetroReconcavo
Bolivia production (historical and forecast)
Brazil’s first PSC open acreage: four awards out of 11 offered
Available blocks for the Suriname 2022 to 2023 deep-water bid round
Aram Block: wildcat well location
Lens valuation NPV10 and production profile 2022-30
Benchmarking company production forecasts
Net pay for major discoveries in Stabroek block
Table 1: Qualifiers for new Petrobras tender
Chart 1: Ultra-deepwater rig rates - Golden Triangle regions
Ecuador blocks prospective resources and area
Upgrader projects capex vs Venezuela total capex in 2012-32
Top 10 countries heavy oil resource theme
Santos basin gas infrastructure utilisation
ANP estimates of oil in place and chance of success
Pre-salt blocks in Brazil's "open acreage" round
NPV10 post-tax and breakeven prices pre and post update
Baja-1 Discovery
Deepwater gas fields with remaining commercial reserves
Lead time for fields discovered
Alto de Cabo Frio Central block: wildcat well location
Net pay for major discoveries in Stabroek block
Ecuador's daily oil production May-June 2022
Top companies by production
Golfinho and Camarupim clusters location
Natural gas production and potential volumes from additional sources
Licensing round results
Popoca-1 location
Guyana and Suriname discoveries split by product type
Navitas' working interest capital
Brazil’s third open acreage: 59 awards across six basins
Stabroek block oil production by FPSO
Petrobras: lifting cost evolution by resource theme
Wintershall Mexico net annual capex
Production outlook
Vista’s operated blocks in the Neuquén basin
M&A deals in the oil windows of Vaca Muerta (not exhaustive)
Lakach location
Location of CAN 100, CAN 108 and CAN 114
PSC blocks included in the permanent offer round
Yoti Oeste-1 well location
Manatee field location
Oilstone and GeoPark operated blocks in the Neuquén basin
Brazil's 17th round blocks on offer and awarded
Blocks on offer in Brazil’s Concession Round 17
Comparison of a 5mmbbl oil field across Andean onshore regimes
Number of FIDs by region
Reserves unlocked by Brazil’s FIDs in 2021
Sayulita-1 well
NPV scenarios
Decommissioning delays for 2020 and 2021 units
GSJ basin blocks location (CGC at 100%)
Cuyo basin blocks location (CGC farms in at 30%)
Fiscal comparison in Latin America countries
Upstream Competitive Index
Black oil blocks operated by Shell and Vista in Vaca Muerta (not exhaustive)
M&A deals in the oil windows of Vaca Muerta (not exhaustive)
Suriname 2020-21 shallow-water round results
Remaining NPV10 comparison for the selected assets under different Brent scenarios
Emissions intensity range for selected deepwater assets
Basins most impacted by the Colombian protests
State share at 11% royalty rate
State share at 8% royalty rate
Volumes provided for firm exports from Neuquina basin
Volumes provided for firm exports from Austral basin
Transfer-of-rights surplus bid parameters comparison: 2019 and 2021
Zama location
Dzimpona discovery location
Imports from Bolivia and Plan Gas 4 (second round) awarded volumes
3R Petroleum portfolio by resources and value
Average sales gas and injection commitments by Basin
Average sales gas and injection commitments in Neuquina Basin
Aguada de Canepa is close to major oil developments in Vaca Muerta
Brazil’s second open acreage: 18 awards across seven basins
Marlim cluster is one of the largest upstream divestment
Occidental's onshore Colombia portfolio
Project location
Monthly and cumulative gas injection
Pemex Production 2020
Comparison of well monthly production for June 2020 and previous peak in Bajada del Palo
Kwaskwasi-1 and planned Keskesi East-1
Pre- and post-crash investment forecast for Latin America
Top 5 countries in decommissioning costs for the decade (2020-29)
Production outlook from Mexican early rounds projects
Block 15
Polok and Chinwol
Breakeven price for medium size/medium cost and large size/large cost deepwater oil field under different fiscal scenarios
Ecuador main oil transport system and associated blocks
Top 10* Company Reserves
At a Brent price of US$25/bbl, revenue from 10 million b/d (9%) of global liquids supply does not cover production costs and government share
Buzios’s FPSOs ramp up (ANP data available until December 2019)
Saasken-1 Location
Eni’s upcoming wells
Cross-bordering fields
Partners' production in Colombia
Remaining reserves by onshore basin
A nine kilometers tieback would boost production on PetroRio’s combined development
T&T gas production projection (bcf/d)
Stabroek block resource addition per year
Zama
Activities moving forward in a highly prospective corner in pre-salt
Companies’ acreage in Venezuela excluding PDVSA
Fiscal terms benchmark for a 600 mmboe pre-salt field in Brazil
GeoPark and Amerisur Colombian Blocks
Signature bonuses for Brazil blocks in 2019 were 90% of bonus raised globally
If Gato do Mato development goes ahead, Ecopetrol will accelerate its production in Brazil as Saturno and Pau-Brasil still depend on exploration results
Round 16 signature bonus payments for 12 blocks surpassed US$2 billion
Shell's blocks partially acquired by Chevron
Transactions 2018 - 2019
Transactions 2018 - 2019
Onshore blocks located in northeast Brazil dominated the round, with geographic diversification across three different basins
Oil Production (mb/d)
Government take from early projects*
Intracampos licensing round - blocks awarded
New gas pipeline will help but not solve debottleneck transport infrastructure
Since 1998, 13 new operators have joined Petrobras in the Campos and Santos basins
Both blocks sit close to the Vaca Muerta’s already sanctioned projects
VIM 22 block was the only block that received a counteroffer
Map of 2019 Dominican Republic Licensing Round
Falkand Islands (Malvinas) compete with the UK for Harbour's largest capital allocation