Venezuela faces considerable debt repayments in 2017 and debt default is a key risk. Economic strain is worsening as inflation skyrockets. In a worst case scenario debt default in 2017 could impact over 300 000 b/d of oil supply in 2018. Heavy oil projects in the Orinoco would be most affected. This would help ease the global oversupply in the second half of 2018 and be price supportive.