Insight
Vienna 5-6 December: Decision time for OPEC and its partners
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
On 5-6 December 2019, OPEC+ gathers in Vienna to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. The idea of deeper cuts and/or increased adherence has been broached, but that is a more difficult option for the group to achieve given the persistent non-compliance of a few in the agreement. The need for production restraint is clear in our Macro Oils short term forecast for 2020. Slower US production growth next year is not enough to offset the ongoing oversupply.
Table of contents
- Risk of unravelling?
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Rollover through 2020 is still our base case
- Base case: exempt countries
- Base case: Russia
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Deeper cuts and greater adherence
- The adherence challenge for Iraq and Nigeria
- Recession: Risk for OPEC+
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- OPEC production adherence – November 2019 estimate
- OPEC and Russia production targets as of December 2018 meeting (‘000 b/d)
- Implied stock change: base case vs increased compliance
What's included
This report contains:
