Commodity Market Report

China power market and long-term outlook 2020

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11 December 2020

China power market and long-term outlook 2020

Report summary

China is the biggest power market worldwide. In the past decades coal dominated the power mix, but in the coming decades we will see an unprecedented energy transition led by renewable energy. In this report we present our base case view on how China's power mix will change in the next thirty years. Please be noted that the carbon neutral pledge by 2060 could create major uncertainties to the base case. Key highlights include: 1) Coal will remain the dominant fuel in the generation mix, with gas playing a more peak-shaving role in China as well as combined heat and power. 2) Nuclear will expand its share in the generation mix to help reach targets to lower fossil fuel share in the primary energy mix. 3) China will invest US$495 billion in solar and wind in the next decade, pushing the non-fossil fuel share in the total generation mix to 39% by 2030. 4) China has established a unique power market that blends central and local planning and regulation with more free market mechanisms.

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