Europe energy prices long-term outlook: H2 2019

The wave of new LNG supply has been unable to place all its volumes in Asia, which resulted in a saturated European market, where Russia defends its market share. With a new 5-year Ukrainian transit agreement now in place between Gazprom and Naftogaz, allowing gas to flow to Europe, save an unforeseen event, there is no realistic price upside whatsoever over next couple of years. Our view of ARA coal price is lower than our previous H1 2019 forecast to 2025. Near-term prices continue to be pressured by the sustained low gas prices in Europe, China's policy uncertainty amid its trade tension with the US, and global seaborne supply improvement. Carbon prices continue to support fuel-switching in the power sector. Emissions allowance (EUA) prices averaged close to €25/tCO2 in 2019 – up from a 5-year average of just €6/tCO2 between 2013 and 2017. Despite, the short-term background of continued low gas prices, we expect EUA prices to be sustained at a similar level through 2020 and 2021.