Commodity Market Report
Europe energy prices long-term outlook: H2 2019
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The wave of new LNG supply has been unable to place all its volumes in Asia, which resulted in a saturated European market, where Russia defends its market share. With a new 5-year Ukrainian transit agreement now in place between Gazprom and Naftogaz, allowing gas to flow to Europe, save an unforeseen event, there is no realistic price upside whatsoever over next couple of years. Our view of ARA coal price is lower than our previous H1 2019 forecast to 2025. Near-term prices continue to be pressured by the sustained low gas prices in Europe, China's policy uncertainty amid its trade tension with the US, and global seaborne supply improvement. Carbon prices continue to support fuel-switching in the power sector. Emissions allowance (EUA) prices averaged close to €25/tCO2 in 2019 – up from a 5-year average of just €6/tCO2 between 2013 and 2017. Despite, the short-term background of continued low gas prices, we expect EUA prices to be sustained at a similar level through 2020 and 2021.
Table of contents
- No table of contents specified
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Conflict in the Middle East: the impact on Russia's oil outlook
We outline the consequences of the war in the Middle East for the Russian oil sector and the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes.
$1,350
Asset Report
ADX Energy Assets
Australia-listed ADX Energy bought the mature Zistersdorf and Gaiselberg oil fields in 2019. They are both located in the Vienna basin ...
$3,720
Commodity Market Report
Brazil power markets long-term outlook H2 2025
The country outlook provides annual and monthly data of our analysis of the power value chain in Brazil until 2060.
$8,000
