Commodity Market Report
Europe energy prices long-term outlook: H2 2019
Report summary
The wave of new LNG supply has been unable to place all its volumes in Asia, which resulted in a saturated European market, where Russia defends its market share. With a new 5-year Ukrainian transit agreement now in place between Gazprom and Naftogaz, allowing gas to flow to Europe, save an unforeseen event, there is no realistic price upside whatsoever over next couple of years. Our view of ARA coal price is lower than our previous H1 2019 forecast to 2025. Near-term prices continue to be pressured by the sustained low gas prices in Europe, China's policy uncertainty amid its trade tension with the US, and global seaborne supply improvement. Carbon prices continue to support fuel-switching in the power sector. Emissions allowance (EUA) prices averaged close to €25/tCO2 in 2019 – up from a 5-year average of just €6/tCO2 between 2013 and 2017. Despite, the short-term background of continued low gas prices, we expect EUA prices to be sustained at a similar level through 2020 and 2021.
Table of contents
- No table of contents specified
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Poland downstream oil long-term outlook
Poland is the biggest market for oil products in the CEE region and is the largest remaining growth market in Europe.
$6,750
Commodity Market Report
Croatia downstream oil long-term outlook
National oil company INA is to invest in one refinery while ceasing crude processing at the other, as the battle over its control continues.
$4,750
Insight
Global coal M&A September 2023: Miners capitalize on record pricing, fueling deal revival
ESG commitment and strategic positioning will drive deal making
$1,100
