Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2019

Relative movements in fuel prices and higher carbon costs have had a major impact on the economics of conventional thermal generators in 2019, reordering the cost curve of supply in favour of gas. As the transition of the power sector continues, gas' contribution to the supply mix will be sustained as coal and nuclear decline. National Energy & Climate Plans provide a roadmap for continued decarbonisation of Europe’s power markets and, with 2050 net-zero emissions goals also emerging, progress over the coming decade will be pivotal to longer-term success. We expect the renewable share of EU-28 power supply to rise from 33% in 2019 to over 60% by 2040. This report presents our long-term outlook for European power markets to 2040, including a full summary of our regional view and an outline of developments in individual key markets.