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European gas after Ukraine – what to look out for

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Report summary

The biggest loser out of the on-going Russia-Ukraine tension will likely be gas advocacy. While Europe will remain depending upon Russian gas, albeit likely less of it, gas might end up reducing its share in energy demand. The longer term impact on the European gas markets remains to be seen. Over the following 12 months we expect some decisions that will provide signposts for the future – policy at EU and national level, regulation and corporate decisions.

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    European gas after Ukraine – what to look out for

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Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Demand-side Measures
    • Binding, more ambitious energy efficiency targets could reduce gas demand in the residential and commercial sector
    • Some national governments could make fresh efforts to influence public opinion on nuclear
    • Coal could be quietly promoted as a transitional fuel ahead of gas
    • More aggressive renewables targets could emerge
    • Norwegian gas upside requires fiscal improvements and infrastructure development
    • European policy makers can do more to support development of its shale resource
    • Some US LNG was coming to Europe anyway - it remains to be seen whether Russia-Ukraine tensions will result in more
    • The Southern Corridor appear to benefit from Russia-Ukraine tensions
      • Long run delivered costs of gas to North West Europe
    • But European market liberalisation will present opportunities for Ukraine and East Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian gas
  • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

Images

  • European* primary energy demand by fuel (2013)
  • European* supply mix (2013)
  • European gas after Ukraine – what to look out for: Image 3

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