Commodity Market Report
Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Mexico's gas and power markets enter a period of regulatory revitalisation in 2026. Since the LESE came into force in March 2025, authorities have issued over 40 official documents to recapture private investor interest. The first priority generation permits call secured 18 projects (3,476 MW generation, 1,258 MW storage) for 2027–2029, while the Mixed Scheme tender targets 7,500 MW across seven control regions. CFE has also launched a 58-project transmission portfolio via CFE Fibra E and OPF, aligned with the PAMRNT. Economic recovery remains distant: GDP growth stays around 1% in 2025–2026, well below PLADESE's 2.5% assumption. Our model projects 1.9% CAGR electricity demand through 2039, rising to 2.7% by 2060. These dynamics drive stronger renewable and storage additions (+15% BESS, +26.7% solar, +14.5% wind), tripling installed capacity by 2060. A revised Henry Hub outlook — US$6.5/MMbtu by 2050, US$1/MMbtu below prior — flows through to lower power prices.
Table of contents
- The post-Covid-19 recovery boom has lost momentum
- LNG is no longer positioned as a key growth engine for Mexico’s gas demand
- Economic factors and climate strain Mexico’s power system
- Mexico’s ambitious energy plan targets 29 GW of generation expansion by 2030
- The prolonged economic recovery from Covid-19 has taken its toll
- US piped gas is set to increase its market share significantly
- Economic growth, rising temperatures and extreme weather events put further pressure on energy loads.
- Following the 2024 presidential elections, the next administration must shift its strategy to accelerate investments in emissions-free power generation.
- Increase in indigenous supply offset by LNG feedgas
- Slower economic recovery to diminish gas demand
- Gas combined-cyles plants maintain their role as the key dispatchable source
- Mexico’s clean energy goals will not be achieved until mid 2030s
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Mexico gas and power at a glanceMexico energy market at a glance
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