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Middle East conflict scenarios: implications for European power markets
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Report summary
The fragile ceasefire has provided some hope and a degree of respite. Negotiations remain unresolved, hostilities have not ceased, and flows of oil, LNG, and other commodities into global markets remain significantly disrupted. Against this backdrop, Wood Mackenzie has developed two alternative scenarios alongside its H1 2026 May base case: In the Extended Disruption case slower progress in made towards a peace agreement, with prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz while, in Summer Settlement, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes by end of the northern hemisphere’s summer.
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