Commodity Market Report
Middle East conflict scenarios: implications for European power markets
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Report summary
The fragile ceasefire has provided some hope and a degree of respite. Negotiations remain unresolved, hostilities have not ceased, and flows of oil, LNG, and other commodities into global markets remain significantly disrupted. European power markets are less dependent on gas than during the 2022 crisis, but gas-fired generators still frequently set marginal prices, transmitting increases in gas prices directly into power prices. On the demand side, disruptions to the global economy are reshaping consumption patterns and the electrification trajectory. Against this backdrop, Wood Mackenzie has developed two alternative scenarios alongside its H1 2026 May Base case.
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